Comments on: If you’re black and you smoke pot, get arrested http://apublicdefender.com/2009/12/29/if-youre-black-and-you-smoke-pot-get-arrested/ Wed, 25 Apr 2012 01:43:58 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: Gideon http://apublicdefender.com/2009/12/29/if-youre-black-and-you-smoke-pot-get-arrested/comment-page-1/#comment-52699 Gideon Thu, 31 Dec 2009 03:01:37 +0000 http://apublicdefender.com/?p=2638#comment-52699 You could've just said 4th beer and we would have understood. Lol. You could’ve just said 4th beer and we would have understood. Lol.

]]> By: Jamie http://apublicdefender.com/2009/12/29/if-youre-black-and-you-smoke-pot-get-arrested/comment-page-1/#comment-52698 Jamie Thu, 31 Dec 2009 02:56:48 +0000 http://apublicdefender.com/?p=2638#comment-52698 Uh, I'm a fn mo - ron lol. Misread it somehow as the 18 years before Bloomberg. And I haven't even finished my first beer, so I can't really blame it on that. Uh, I’m a fn mo – ron lol. Misread it somehow as the 18 years before Bloomberg. And I haven’t even finished my first beer, so I can’t really blame it on that.

]]> By: Gideon http://apublicdefender.com/2009/12/29/if-youre-black-and-you-smoke-pot-get-arrested/comment-page-1/#comment-52694 Gideon Thu, 31 Dec 2009 02:33:55 +0000 http://apublicdefender.com/?p=2638#comment-52694 wait, what? Rudy's first two years were 94 and 95. So from 78-95 < 2008. That makes perfect sense. I don't know what the hell you're talking about. wait, what?

Rudy’s first two years were 94 and 95. So from 78-95 < 2008.

That makes perfect sense.

I don’t know what the hell you’re talking about.

]]> By: Jamie http://apublicdefender.com/2009/12/29/if-youre-black-and-you-smoke-pot-get-arrested/comment-page-1/#comment-52691 Jamie Thu, 31 Dec 2009 02:24:48 +0000 http://apublicdefender.com/?p=2638#comment-52691 Hadn’t clicked on the study for the first comment, which is one reason I allowed for being wrong. Having said that, and looked at the study – well, skimmed the damn thing – I’m still confused. I agree that the chart on page 3 supports the statement I took issue with. May be somehow related to the small print disclaimer at the bottom of p3, “This table shows the lowest level misdemeanor marijuana arrests and charges”. I suppose that only including the lowest level could skew things, or they are drawing distinctions between arrests vs. arrests + non-arrest charges but… that same disclaimer is on the chart on Matt’s blog. The averages, which belie the conclusion, seem likely to be the truer measure. Check out the chart on page 1. It shows more arrests in 2000, just 1 year of Guliani, than in 2008. Different chart but same thing on page 5, except there it’s even more obvious that there are more (more of what? are we comparing apples to apples? I’m not sure) in 2001 alone and 2002 alone than in 2008 alone. As far as the skewing for Rudy’s first years, that doesn’t make any mathematical difference. (This part I’m sure of.) If the <i>average</i> for Rudy’s years is X over 8 years, it makes no difference to the total number of Rudy’s arrests whether they were all spread out evenly, at exactly 24,487 arrests each year – an unlikely prospect to be sure – or whether there were 0 arrests for the first 7 years and then <i>all</i> of the arrests (185,896) in the eighth – which would be even less likely, of course. The total number of Rudy arrests over his time as mayor is the average arrests per year times the number of years. So something is screwy. I’m still probably missing something. But my bet is that to make the 2008 > the previous 18 years stat that they are somehow using the lies, damned lies and statistics version of the word “statistics”. Either that, or I’m drinking and commenting. Hadn’t clicked on the study for the first comment, which is one reason I allowed for being wrong. Having said that, and looked at the study – well, skimmed the damn thing – I’m still confused.

I agree that the chart on page 3 supports the statement I took issue with. May be somehow related to the small print disclaimer at the bottom of p3, “This table shows the lowest level misdemeanor marijuana arrests and charges”. I suppose that only including the lowest level could skew things, or they are drawing distinctions between arrests vs. arrests + non-arrest charges but… that same disclaimer is on the chart on Matt’s blog.

The averages, which belie the conclusion, seem likely to be the truer measure. Check out the chart on page 1. It shows more arrests in 2000, just 1 year of Guliani, than in 2008. Different chart but same thing on page 5, except there it’s even more obvious that there are more (more of what? are we comparing apples to apples? I’m not sure) in 2001 alone and 2002 alone than in 2008 alone.

As far as the skewing for Rudy’s first years, that doesn’t make any mathematical difference. (This part I’m sure of.) If the average for Rudy’s years is X over 8 years, it makes no difference to the total number of Rudy’s arrests whether they were all spread out evenly, at exactly 24,487 arrests each year – an unlikely prospect to be sure – or whether there were 0 arrests for the first 7 years and then all of the arrests (185,896) in the eighth – which would be even less likely, of course. The total number of Rudy arrests over his time as mayor is the average arrests per year times the number of years. So something is screwy.

I’m still probably missing something. But my bet is that to make the 2008 > the previous 18 years stat that they are somehow using the lies, damned lies and statistics version of the word “statistics”. Either that, or I’m drinking and commenting.

]]> By: Gideon http://apublicdefender.com/2009/12/29/if-youre-black-and-you-smoke-pot-get-arrested/comment-page-1/#comment-52687 Gideon Thu, 31 Dec 2009 01:50:05 +0000 http://apublicdefender.com/?p=2638#comment-52687 The relevant stats are on page 3 of the study. Koch + Dinkins + Guiliani = 39,893 Bloomberg = 40,383 It is skewed by the fact that in the first 2 years of Rudy, the numbers were 3K and 5K ish respectively. The relevant stats are on page 3 of the study.

Koch + Dinkins + Guiliani = 39,893
Bloomberg = 40,383

It is skewed by the fact that in the first 2 years of Rudy, the numbers were 3K and 5K ish respectively.

]]> By: Jamie http://apublicdefender.com/2009/12/29/if-youre-black-and-you-smoke-pot-get-arrested/comment-page-1/#comment-52686 Jamie Thu, 31 Dec 2009 01:42:36 +0000 http://apublicdefender.com/?p=2638#comment-52686 One of us must be misunderstanding the graph in Matt’s post. The way I see it, since it says those are <i>yearly</i> averages, I think the "more than the previous 18 years combined" number you come up with is wrong. For example, Guliani’s average arrest rate of under 25K per year, times 2 (and he was mayor for 8) is more than Bloomberg’s biggest year of 40K arrests. One of us must be misunderstanding the graph in Matt’s post. The way I see it, since it says those are yearly averages, I think the “more than the previous 18 years combined” number you come up with is wrong.

For example, Guliani’s average arrest rate of under 25K per year, times 2 (and he was mayor for 8) is more than Bloomberg’s biggest year of 40K arrests.

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